The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 pointed out: “The new development concept must be applied throughout the entire development process and in all fields to achieve higher-quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable, and safer development.” In the face of today’s world undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, we must not only buck the trend, carry forward the spirit of struggle, be good at nurturing new opportunities in the midst of crises, open up new situations in the changing situation, seize opportunities to accelerate economic development and plan for the future, but also Follow the trend and follow the general trend of “my country has entered a stage of high-quality development”, and speed up the investment and construction of new infrastructure to seize the initiative in the new round of economic development in the future.
Adhere to the “new development concept” to break the situation
“The current economic situation is still complex and severe, with great instability and uncertainty. Many of the problems we have encountered are medium and long-term and must be understood from the perspective of a protracted war.” The author believes that the characterization mainly includes two aspects: first, the impact of the global epidemic on the global economy is complex and will continue; second, the uncertainty of the international geopolitical environment is a medium- and long-term problem.
On the one hand, the global economy is very likely or has entered a recession or even a Great Depression. Relevant data show that the US GDP in the second quarter fell by 32.9% month-on-month, the largest decline since the statistics were conducted in 1947, and Germany’s second-quarter GDP fell by 10.1% month-on-month. JPMorgan forecasts that the euro zone economy will shrink by an annualized rate of 40% in the second quarter. India, where the epidemic is still spreading, will also shrink by 40%, and Brazil’s decline will be as high as 51%. According to an analysis by an investment management agency in the United States, more than 90% of the world economy is shrinking. The current global recession is unprecedented in terms of synchrony. What is more worrying is that such a bad situation is far from the bottom, because the global epidemic is still spreading, and its negative impact on the economy will continue.
On the other hand, the “Five Eyes Alliance” led by the United States is besieging my country from economic, technological, political and other aspects, and it is no longer limited to trade wars and technological wars. Judging from the information from the two parties in the United States, even if a new political party comes to power after the election, it will be difficult to change the hostile strategy of the United States towards China. This is also a long-term problem.
Faced with the complexity and long-term nature of the above-mentioned problems, my country is accelerating the formation of a “new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other”. “Domestic big cycle” means that expanding domestic demand will become the fulcrum of my country’s economic development for a long time in the future; when economic development enters a new stage, it requires in-depth innovation and reform of the domestic industrial chain, focusing on new infrastructure and increasing technological innovation , to promote the transformation of the industry to digitalization and intelligence, and further promote the upgrading of consumption.
The wave of new infrastructure investment is “contrarian”
The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee pointed out: “At present and in the future, my country’s development is still in a period of strategic opportunities, but both opportunities and challenges have new development and changes.” When the financial crisis occurred in 2008, my country launched a “4 trillion” investment “iron”. “Public infrastructure”, through the pull of traditional infrastructure, especially real estate investment, helped the real economy to survive the crisis. The current situation is more complex and long-term. It is necessary to deeply understand the new characteristics and new requirements brought about by the development and changes of the main contradictions in our society, and based on a longer-term development strategy, we must coordinate the promotion of a new round of social and economic development. .
Judging from a number of economic data in the first half of this year, investment in new infrastructure construction has caught up.
The wave of new infrastructure investment from top to bottom has become a breakthrough for my country’s economic development. In March 2020, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and proposed to speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers. On May 22, the “2020 State Council Government Work Report” proposed to focus on supporting “two new and one heavy” construction including new infrastructure construction. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 proposed to speed up the construction of new infrastructure, to further promote the development strategy of major regions, and to speed up the implementation of major national strategic projects. It is necessary to drive investment and consumption demand with new urbanization, and promote the innovation of systems and mechanisms for the integrated development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas. To improve the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain and supply chain, more attention should be paid to making up short plates and forging long plates.
The local government is also sparing no effort to promote the construction of new infrastructure. According to relevant statistics, in the first half of the year, the investment in the telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission service industries with 5G construction as the main body increased by 88.7%. Investment in construction-based information transmission and information technology service industries increased by 1.6 times year-on-year; in the first half of the year, investment in high-tech manufacturing in Shaanxi increased by 55.8%, and investment in high-tech manufacturing in Shandong increased by 31.7%; at present, investment in Shanghai’s manufacturing industry has been maintained for 10 consecutive quarters. Double-digit growth.
In addition, according to data released by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, central enterprises completed a total of 673.07 billion yuan in fixed asset investment in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in power generation, automobile, communication, metallurgy and other industries in the first half of the year exceeded 15%. In addition, in the first half of the year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 54 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 494.4 billion yuan, mainly in high-tech, energy, and water conservancy for farmers. The Development and Reform Commission said that the next step will be to actively plan to promote new major projects. It is reported that China Telecom is expected to complete this year’s 5G base station investment task one quarter ahead of schedule.
Enterprises should take advantage of the trend to enhance their competitiveness
The implementation of the national strategy and the driving force for economic development must ultimately fall on the market players. Whether it is a central state-owned enterprise or an Internet enterprise, under the new development pattern, they should all follow the trend in order to travel thousands of miles. So what exactly is going on? The author believes that it is in line with the “double cycle” of my country’s economic development, the general trend of industrial digitalization and intelligent development, and the historical trend of the people’s continuous pursuit of a better digital life.
To catch the express train of the times, it is necessary to lay out new infrastructure. The author believes that the new infrastructure covers a wide range and has many subdivisions. As far as the digital economy is concerned, 5G is the foundation of the network, big data is the raw material, the Internet of Things, the industrial Internet and artificial intelligence are application catalysts, and cloud computing is the core. power. Enterprises should actively cater to the future trend of cloudification, and transform business models and digital operation models through cloudification.
At present, the core competitiveness of Amazon, which ranks third in the US stock market value, is cloud computing. At the end of 2019, Amazon’s cloud computing market share was as high as 32.4%. In addition to online retail, its main business is online office. Amazon’s cloud computing service platform (AWS) provides a complete set of cloud computing services including elastic computing, storage, database, and the Internet of Things. The business grew 37% in the second quarter, following a 33% increase in the first quarter.
The general trend of new infrastructure construction, whether domestic technology giants Tencent, Ali, Huawei or China Telecom and other communication operators, are actively embracing new infrastructure. It is believed that in the new round of development of China’s economy in the future, a group of world-class technology giants leading the world will be born to help the high-quality development of China’s economy.